Three Confrontations in One Week: South China Sea Tensions Enter a More Volatile Phase

China and the Philippines had three separate standoffs over two disputed South China Sea features in five days, a sharp escalation from the relative calm in the region experienced over the past few months.

The incidents brought the issue of whether the efforts to quell tensions have started to fray to the fore of the diplomatic spotlight for both governments.

The confrontations occurred at Second Thomas Shoal, known in the Philippines as Ayungin Shoal, and Scarborough Shoal, two of the region’s most contested maritime features.

Although the incidents took place in different circumstances, some questions have emerged over the last series of events as to whether both parties are ratcheting up their activities in the disputed waters.

Marine Injured at Second Thomas Shoal

The first incident was on July 20 at Second Thomas Shoal when a Philippine Navy marine was seriously injured in the head after being struck with a wooden baton by China Coast Guard (CCG) personnel, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said.

According to the AFP, a rigid-hull inflatable boat carrying eight CCG personnel from vessel CCGV 21560 approached the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded Philippine Navy vessel that serves as Manila’s military outpost on the shoal, before the altercation took place.

China disputed the Philippine account. The Philippine operations during the encounter were “egregious in nature”, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson Guo Jiakun, and the Chinese side accused the Philippine personnel of provoking the incident.

The Manila police, on the other hand, charged the CCG with resorting to force against its own personnel and damaging a Philippine Navy rubber boat.

Water Cannon Incidents at Scarborough Shoal

Three days later, tensions shifted to Scarborough Shoal.

Two Chinese boats on July 23 “engaged in a dangerous maneuver” against a Philippine boat carrying fuel and food to Filipino fishermen, and the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) sprayed another Chinese vessel with water cannons for over two minutes, the PCG said.

China’s coast guard offered a different account, saying two Philippine government vessels had entered waters under Chinese jurisdiction despite repeated warnings. Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said Chinese personnel took “necessary measures in accordance with the law” after the Philippine vessels ignored instructions to leave the area.

At least three Philippine ships were targeted by water cannons during another patrol near Scarborough Shoal the next day, the PCG said. It also reported that a Chinese coast guard ship “neighbored” a Philippine fisheries boat by being in the proximity of about 7 meters, putting them at serious risk of collision.

“The PCG strongly condemns the dangerous and unprofessional actions of the China Coast Guard,” PCG spokesperson Jay Tarriela said in a statement, adding that Scarborough Shoal remained a traditional fishing ground for Filipino fishers whose rights “cannot be lawfully impeded by any foreign power.”

Diplomatic Exchanges Continue Alongside Maritime Encounters

The July 23 and July 24 incidents occurred during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers’ meeting in Kuala Lumpur, while Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also attended various regional meetings.

During bilateral talks with Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Theresa Lazaro, Wang warned that the Philippines would “bear the bitter consequences” if it continued what Beijing described as provocative actions with support from outside powers. China also lodged a formal protest over what it characterized as the Philippine military’s aggressive actions at Second Thomas Shoal.

Rubio, after reviewing videos of the Scarborough Shoal incidents, described China’s conduct as “disturbing” and reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, which covers armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels and aircraft in the Pacific.

What the Recent Incidents May Indicate

The three clashes in two distinct flashpoints within a span of a week have garnered attention as a result of a dip in direct maritime clashes that had been observed in the preceding months.

The most recent incidents also occur a year after China and the Philippines reached a provisional agreement to ease tensions over the Philippines’ resupply missions for the BRP Sierra Madre after a violent confrontation in June 2024 resulted in the deaths of one and the loss of a thumb to a Chinese sailor.

Whether the recent encounters represent a temporary spike in tensions or the beginning of a sustained increase in operational activity remains unclear. However, the succession of incidents has renewed concerns among regional observers that routine maritime operations could once again become more confrontational if diplomatic efforts fail to prevent further escalation.

Long-Running Dispute

China has staked a claim to nearly all of the South China Sea, a vital shipping route that is used by an estimated $3 trillion worth of trade annually. Other areas of the sea are also claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague, in 2016, decided that China’s vast claims over the ocean were not legally valid according to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Beijing has dismissed the ruling and has steadfastly claimed control of the majority of the waterway, whereas the Philippines have referred to it in the interest of their maritime claims.

The renewed series of clashes highlights how it can be just one day after the peace negotiations between both governments that tensions escalate in one of Asia’s most strategically significant waterways.