Trump’s Economic Ratings Sink Ahead of Midterms: Over Half of Voters Say His Policies Have Hurt the Economy
President Donald Trump is heading into the final stretch before the 2026 midterm elections with his approval rating at a second-term low and a majority of registered voters saying his policies have hurt the U.S. economy, according to a new poll.
Trump’s job approval stands at 41%, while 56% of registered voters disapprove of his performance, according to the NBC survey. 55% of voters say Trump’s policies have hurt economic conditions, compared with 26% who say they have helped and 18% who say they have made little difference.
The findings mark a deterioration from NBC’s March poll, when 48% said Trump’s policies had hurt the economy. That earlier survey found 35% saying his policies had helped economic conditions.
The shift comes as inflation and the cost of living remain central concerns for voters. The war with Iran has contributed to higher energy prices, and the poll found that 62% of voters do not believe the conflict has been worth it.
The political consequences could extend to the battle for Congress. Democrats lead Republicans 50% to 45% among registered voters asked which party they would prefer to control Congress.
The five-point gap, however, is considerably smaller than Democrats’ 12-point advantage at a comparable stage before the 2018 midterms, when the party ultimately captured the House during Trump’s first term.
Republicans also retain important structural advantages, particularly in the Senate, where Democrats are competing in states Trump carried comfortably in the 2024 presidential election.
“We have a classic battle between these numbers and the political geography in which this campaign will be decided,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, which conducted the NBC survey with Democratic firm Hart Research Associates, told NBC News.
Trump’s economic agenda is also receiving a mixed reception. Forty-two percent of voters say they would be less likely to support a congressional candidate who backs Trump’s 2025 tax and spending legislation, compared with 36% who say that position would make them more likely to support the candidate.
The poll also shows Trump’s role in the election is motivating his opponents. Forty-three percent of registered voters say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to Trump, compared with 27% who say it is meant to signal support for him. Among independents, 46% describe their vote as a signal of opposition, while 10% say it is intended as a show of support.
Democrats have also erased what had once been a substantial Republican advantage on economic issues. The new poll gives Democrats a one-point edge on which party voters trust more to handle the economy, a statistical tie given the survey’s margin of error, and a seven-point advantage on controlling inflation.
Republicans continue to hold advantages on crime, immigration and border security, including a 21-point lead on handling the border. Democrats, meanwhile, lead on healthcare and issues involving data centers.
The broader picture is complicated by voters’ unfavorable assessment of the Democratic Party itself. Twenty-nine percent have a positive view of Democrats and 50% a negative one, compared with 36% positive and 49% negative for Republicans.
“This speaks more to deep dissatisfaction with Trump and Republicans than a ringing endorsement of Democrats,” Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates told NBC News.
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from September 11 through September 15 using telephone interviews and an online survey sent by text message. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
