U.S. Job Growth Is Expected To Slow In September. Unemployment Is Forecast To Hold At 4.1%

U.S. hiring is expected to have slowed in September after a stronger-than-expected increase a month earlier, with Friday’s employment report set to provide the latest reading on a labor market that has shown relatively low layoffs but restrained hiring.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the September employment report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, Oct. 2. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect nonfarm payrolls to have increased by 84,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.

That would mark a sizable slowdown from August, when employers added 162,000 jobs and unemployment remained at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment increased that month in food services and drinking places and local government education, while the information sector lost jobs.

Average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 3.1% from a year earlier in September, compared with growth closer to 4% at the beginning of the year, according to the Dow Jones consensus cited by CNBC.

Payroll growth has been volatile through much of this year, even as the unemployment rate has moved relatively little.

Recent data also point to a labor market where employers are neither rapidly expanding payrolls nor conducting widespread layoffs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that job openings were little changed at 7.1 million in August, while hires were also little changed at 5.2 million. Total separations remained at 5.1 million.

About 3.1 million workers voluntarily quit their jobs during August, while layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.6 million. The layoffs and discharges rate stood at 1%, according to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

The data suggest relatively limited movement on both sides of the labor market. Employers continue to have millions of open positions, but hiring has remained subdued and workers are quitting jobs at a relatively modest rate.

Friday’s report will also arrive a little more than two weeks after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time this year.

The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark federal funds target range by a quarter percentage point on Sept. 16 to between 3.75% and 4%.

In its statement, the Fed said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and that job gains had kept pace with growth in the labor force, while unemployment had changed little.

Inflation, however, remained elevated, members of the central bank said.

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams similarly described the labor market as solid in a Sept. 29 speech.

Williams said the unemployment rate had edged down to around where it stood during the first half of 2025, layoffs remained near historically low levels and payroll gains had been positive.

“With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information,” Williams said.

He said one additional increase in the federal funds rate could be appropriate later this year if the economy developed in line with his forecast, while emphasizing that incoming data would guide future decisions. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28.

Stable headline employment figures have not translated into greater confidence among workers.

The Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index fell to a record low in September, the third time it has reached a new low this year.

Just 42.9% of employees who submitted reviews to Glassdoor reported a positive six-month outlook for their employer, down from a revised 44.5% in August.

Glassdoor Chief Economist Daniel Zhao said concerns over job security, economic uncertainty and inflation had weighed on sentiment.

Mentions of AI in employee reviews were up 164% from a year earlier, while references to uncertainty rose 84%, inflation increased 22% and layoffs were mentioned 13% more often, according to Glassdoor.

Other labor-market indicators point to limited layoffs.

U.S.-based employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, down 18% from August and 20% from the same month last year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That was the lowest September total since 2022.

Through the first nine months of the year, employers announced 573,195 job cuts, down 39% from the same period in 2025, Challenger said.