UK Set for Brief Summer-Like Surge as Temperatures Could Hit 28°C

Parts of southern and southeastern England are bracing for a brief burst of summer-like warmth this weekend, with temperatures forecast to climb to 28°C to 29°C, and a chance of hitting 30°C in the hottest spots.

The warmth follows what the Met Office confirmed on Sept. 1 was the UK’s hottest summer on record, with an average mean temperature of 16.5°C in a series stretching back to 1884. The summer was also among the sunniest on record in some locations and unusually dry across much of the country, following an exceptional June across Western Europe that averaged 20.74°C around the clock, more than 3°C above the long-term average.

Forecasters, however, are cautioning against calling this weekend’s warm-up a “September heatwave.” The pickup is expected to be short-lived rather than an extended run of heat, with conditions varying sharply by region: while parts of southern Britain could see sunshine and near-30°C temperatures, Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England are set for much cooler and windier conditions over the same period.

Where and When the Heat Will Peak

Weather models point to the warmest conditions arriving across England between Sept. 5 and Sept. 7:

• Sept. 5: The GFS model puts highs of around 28°C across southern and western England.
• Sept. 6: Similar peaks are expected to spread as far north as Yorkshire.
• Sept. 7: Eastern and western England could see highs of 29°C, with 27°C to 28°C across central and southern regions.

Southern, western, eastern and central England, along with Yorkshire, are the main areas expected to feel the warmth, according to Met Office data cited in recent forecasts.

Why This Doesn’t Officially Count as a Heatwave

The Met Office classifies an official heatwave as reaching a specific temperature threshold for three consecutive days a bar set at 28°C in the southeast of England and 25°C in areas further from the southeast, meaning the same temperature reading can qualify as a heatwave in one region while falling short in another. Because this weekend’s warm spell isn’t expected to persist for three straight days in any one location, forecasters are describing it as a short, one-off surge rather than a formal heatwave.

The forecast comes after a summer that already exceeded the UK’s previous record for consecutive warm days, a mark of 19 days set in 1995, and after temperatures topped 38°C on two separate occasions earlier in 2026.

What Comes After the Warm Spell

Forecasters expect low pressure systems to move in behind the warm weather, bringing cloud, blustery winds and some rain, along with what one Met Office outlook described as “a hint of autumn as the evenings draw in.” The Met Office’s broader outlook for Aug. 31 through Sept. 9 describes temperatures as likely to be near average overall, even with short-lived warm or very warm spells possible, particularly in the south, alongside continued unsettled conditions and showers across other parts of the country.

The Bigger Climate Picture

Meteorologists have linked the record-breaking summer, and the increasing frequency of unusually warm spells more broadly, to human-induced climate change.

The Met Office’s provisional figures indicated that summer 2026’s mean temperature was made roughly 130 times more likely due to the effects of burning fossil fuels, with England, Wales and Northern Ireland each separately breaking their own summer mean temperature records this year.