What Just Happened in Texas Changes Everything

For Democrats, it was a dividend long invested. Year after year, Democrats kept insisting that this would be the cycle that would break the Republican fever in the state. And year after year, they woke up the day after Election Day feeling like Charlie Brown trying to kick Lucy’s football.

Eight years ago, Democrats went all-in on Beto O’Rourke’s bid for Senate against incumbent Ted Cruz. O’Rourke came within three points of prevailing. Six years later, Cruz won another term by more than eight points.

Still, Democrats have long insisted that Texas is not a state of Republican voters. It’s a state of non-voters. Tuesday’s results finally proved that thesis.

The shift could have seismic consequences for the 2028 presidential map. Texas has 40 votes in the Electoral College, or roughly 15% of the haul needed to win the White House. If Democrats can sustain their success in Texas, that suddenly means other traditional swing states could prove optional. And both parties may find themselves having to invest heavily in the massive and pricey state to pin down Texas’ electoral votes every four years.