Yankees vs. Rays ALDS prediction, odds: Bronx Bombers primed to down AL East rivals
The Yankees’ recipe for success was on full display against the Boston Red Sox in the wild-card round.
The Pinstripes received exquisite starting pitching from Cam Schlittler and Max Fried, which allowed the offense to find its rhythm — in a big way.
With Aaron Judge still questionable and Giancarlo Stanton compromised, the Bronx Bombers will need to adopt a damage-by-committee approach with the bat.
Against Boston, it was Ben Rice who led the way, but the Pinstripes got big moments from Austin Wells, George Lombard Jr., Cody Bellinger, Luis Garcia Jr. and Spencer Jones.
Ten different Yankees scored a run in the two games against the Red Sox.
Things are not going to come as easily against the Tampa Bay Rays.
While the Red Sox were a poor man’s version of the Yankees, the Rays can beat you in a number of different ways.
Tampa Bay is above-average at just about everything, and manager Kevin Cash is among the best in the sport at making adjustments and finding matchups to exploit weaknesses, especially in a five-game series.
Yankees vs. Rays ALDS odds, pick
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yankees | -110 |
| Rays | -110 |
It can’t get any tighter than this.
The Rays have home-field advantage and won the AL East, but the oddsmakers have this series as a coin flip. It makes sense on a lot of levels.
Tampa Bay was the most consistent team in the American League this season. The Rays clawed ahead of the Yankees on June 27 and stayed there.
The Rays’ longest losing streak of the season was five games, and it only lost three in a row three times since they took over first place.
As consistent as the Rays were this summer, the Yankees still hung in for most of the season despite a litany of injuries to a host of superstars. The formula was simple: Rely on their elite pitching staff to take pressure off their injury-ravaged lineup.
The plan worked, as the offense is now getting healthier, and the rotation is perfectly poised for this best-of-five against Tampa Bay.
Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodon will get the ball in Game 1, then likely Schlittler in Game 2, before some combination of Max Fried and Rodon/Cole from there, with the possibility of Schlittler again in Game 5.
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The Rays will hope that their contact-happy lineup will be an antidote to a rotation that is teeming with punchout artists, but I’m skeptical they’ll be able to do what they do best against Aaron Boone’s aces.
Yes, Tampa Bay posted the best strikeout rate in the MLB this year, but they’ll be seeing Cy-Young caliber pitching night after night in this series. That’s not how it works in the regular season.
What we saw from the Yankees offense was encouraging, but it wasn’t an outlier. There were signs of life that the offense had begun to ascend down the stretch.
If the bats can keep it up, the pitching staff will do the rest.
The Play: Yankees to win the series (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
