Trump’s diesel deal is folly — and the Ukrainian people will bear the cost

On Sept. 25, a Russian drone slammed into Daniel Umansky’s apartment in Kyiv, killing him and injuring his mother.

At the moment of impact, 14-year-old Daniel was completing a school assignment: an essay on the teachings of major figures in Ukraine’s medieval history and their relevance to the world of today. 

Daniel Umansky is not the first Ukrainian civilian to be killed by the Russian military, nor will he be the last.

The United Nations counts at least 200 civilians killed and over 1,200 injured last month alone.

But President Donald Trump’s diesel deal — under which Moscow would supply up to 5 million metric tons of diesel to US and global markets in exchange for eased US sanctions on Russian fuel — risks turning repetition into routine. 

I lead the American Coalition for Ukraine, a nonpartisan coalition of 45 US nonprofits working to strengthen American support for a just peace.

For our community, that work is not an abstraction.

Daniel’s story should make any American think twice about bankrolling Vladimir Putin’s war by letting Russian energy flow to market.

Yet it may mean little to policymakers who pride themselves on their unsentimental pragmatism, their commitment to defending American interests, and their willingness to confront difficult realities in a perilous world.

So it’s important to consider what those realities truly are: America will gain little from this deal and lose much — and Putin will come out the winner. 

He’ll use any revenue he receives from oil sales to finance more bombs and drones that his military will deploy against civilians in Ukraine, as he keeps proving night after night.

Claims that Kyiv has rejected the White House’s calls for an energy cease-fire are not true: Ukraine’s leaders have said repeatedly that they are willing to cease striking Russia’s energy sector so long as Russia reciprocates in kind. 

In fact, Ukraine again heeded Trump’s latest call for an energy cease-fire, suspending strikes on Russian oil refineries and other energy infrastructure for several days. 

Putin did not: On Wednesday, Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, killing civilians and causing extensive damage.

Once again, Putin has openly disrespected Washington, making a mockery of US warnings.

He believes he can keep doing so without facing any consequences.

And yet, Trump’s diesel deal rewards Moscow while giving Putin no compelling reason to change course. 

The deal does little to address the root causes of the diesel shortage; it rests on the mistaken assumption that Russian refining capacity can simply be switched back on.

Moscow has repeatedly shown that it will prioritize its domestic needs over international sales.

Moreover, the Russians will need months to fix their own refining capacity. 

Additional Ukrainian strikes will delay this timeline further.

And Ukraine may well continue to strike if Russia continues its assault; no amount of unilateral coercion will convince Kyiv to mortgage its children’s future for discounted commodities.

To find the real reason for high diesel prices, the president should look elsewhere: Middle Eastern producers are able to move crude oil at a rate approximating pre-war levels through the Strait of Hormuz, but refineries are still processing less diesel than before. 

In addition, the proposed deal will undercut American credibility on key national security challenges, making it more difficult for the White House to rally international support on China and Iran.

Just three weeks ago, Trump signed legislation pressing countries around the world to decrease their dependence on Russian energy.

The diesel deal does exactly the opposite.

And it sends a jumble of counterproductive messages to allies: If they don’t like the rules set forth by the White House, they can simply wait a few weeks and the rules will change. 

Further, the deal could harm Americans directly.

In addition to striking Ukraine, Russia may use this windfall to expand Iran’s missile stockpile, endangering US military personnel if hostilities in the Persian Gulf resume.

Meanwhile, adversaries around the world will draw the obvious conclusion: Apply sufficient pressure on this White House and you’ll get your way.

Debates about global energy pricing, international alliance management and battlefield advantages matter.

But beyond them lies a starker truth, however unappealing to those practiced in the dispassionate and clinical analysis of the world order.

Somewhere in Ukraine, regular people are playing or learning or sleeping.

In the weeks and months ahead, some will be killed by Russian munitions.

The diesel deal is folly — and they will suffer for it.

Those in power must include Ukrainians like Daniel Umansky in their calculus.

Marianna Tretiak is the president of the American Coalition for Ukraine.